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The models do not depict the future distribution of species but changes in the area they can colonise. Some influencing variables are disregarded, the development of which could only be predicted with great uncertainty: Future use by humans is not taken into account, nor are local disturbances (e.g. avalanches and rockfall), interactions between species or the ability and opportunity to disperse. The persistence of some species under adverse conditions for a certain period of time is also not considered. It is therefore not to be expected that the species will occupy exactly the area shown. The maps should be read as trend scenarios.
The underlying climate scenarios have their uncertainties (see REMO docs ) and there are also newer models by now. The future distribution under changed climatic conditions is inferred from the site conditions observed in the past. The assumption is that the previously observed distribution of plants was in line with site conditions. This cannot be verified and is therefore a source of unquantifiable uncertainty. The models themselves are based on the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) and the quality varies from map to map. Models with AUC values below 0.6 are not shown (validation using test datasets).
The models are based on conditions observed at sites where plants have been recorded in the past and on an estimate of future climate conditions. The growing locations of the plants are taken from a vegetation database of the Berchtesgaden National Park (hosted by the Berchtesgaden National Park administration). The plant information was mainly collected during the second half of the 20th century. The data on site conditions has been derived from the same information system. Depending on the respective plant species, different variables were taken into account (often spring and summer temperatures, slope, soil development). Future climate conditions were derived from REMO simulations calculated on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency.